UK Energy Market Trends

Over the last ten years, the UK energy market has transformed from something most businesses took for granted into a core part of operational and financial strategy.

Volatility, policy shifts, global shocks — they’ve all turned energy procurement into a critical boardroom issue.

We’ve seen energy-intensive industries facing six- and seven-figure cost swings overnight.

While volatility is often blamed on geopolitics or supply issues, the deeper reality is this: the UK is entering a new energy era.

It’s decentralised. It’s decarbonised.

And it’s being redefined by business decisions made now.

Here’s how I see the landscape — and what smart businesses should be doing in 2025 and beyond.

What’s Driving UK Energy Volatility?

In simple terms, we’ve lost predictability.

1. Geopolitical Disruption

The war in Ukraine was a seismic moment for global gas markets. Even though the UK sources less than 4% of its gas from Russia¹, the UK’s exposure to European energy markets meant wholesale prices surged anyway. Between 2021 and 2022, day-ahead gas prices jumped over 300% — and electricity markets followed suit.

2. Supply Chain and Infrastructure Lags

COVID didn’t just strain labour and logistics — it delayed grid upgrades, stalled solar supply chains, and slowed new capacity from reaching the market. That delay has contributed to high system balancing costs (which hit £4.2 billion in 2022²) — costs that ultimately trickle down to business customers.

3. Policy Acceleration

The UK’s legally binding net-zero target has driven massive regulatory changes — from mandatory TCFD disclosures to Scope 2 and 3 pressure in supply chains. That’s not a bad thing, but it’s added another layer of complexity to energy strategy.

What’s Coming in 2025 (And Why It Matters)

The next phase of the UK energy market is taking shape. It won’t be defined by short-term volatility — it’ll be defined by how businesses respond to long-term shifts.

1. Decentralisation Will Overtake Central Supply

The traditional grid model is breaking down. Businesses are generating on-site via solar, signing into private wire deals, or buying direct from generators via Corporate PPAs. This isn't just for big players. SMEs are entering too — especially those with energy-hungry assets and ESG commitments.

According to DESNZ, over 50% of new renewable energy projects in 2024 will be connected to either private wires or embedded generation schemes³.

2. Energy Security Becomes a C-Suite Issue

We’re beyond talking about "resilience" in theory. Between 2022 and 2023, blackout warnings and capacity margin fears made energy risk real. As a result, we’re seeing boards get much closer to procurement and asking tough questions about exposure.

Investments in behind-the-meter generation, commercial solar, and hybrid tech stacks (solar + BESS + hydrogen) are increasing — not for ROI alone, but for security.

3. Scope 2 and 3 Pressures Will Tighten

From 2025 onwards, larger businesses will fall under new EU & UK rules mandating sustainability disclosures. Scope 2 (purchased electricity) and Scope 3 (supply chain) emissions will be under scrutiny. Businesses who rely on brown power or unverified green tariffs will be caught out.

This is where 100% green tariffs and verifiable REGO-backed contracts play a real role.

Why Long-Term Contracts (Like PPAs) Are Growing

Let’s be clear — PPAs aren’t new. But they’re no longer just for multinationals. Funded rooftop PPAs and off-site CPPAs are now accessible to medium-sized businesses spending £100k+ on electricity annually.

Here’s why they’re taking off:

✅ Cost Predictability

PPAs allow businesses to fix power prices for 10–20 years — often at rates 10–30% lower than grid-based alternatives⁴. In a market where wholesale costs can double in months, that’s a serious advantage.

✅ Regulatory & ESG Alignment

PPAs offer auditable emissions reductions. When structured correctly, they support TCFD/ESOS compliance, reduce Scope 2 emissions, and strengthen ESG reporting.

✅ No Upfront CapEx

Most rooftop solar PPAs are fully funded — businesses pay only for the power they use. It’s energy as a service, not as a capital burden. This opens up renewables to companies that would never normally invest in infrastructure.

The Smart Move: Strategic Energy Positioning

I’ve spoken to CFOs, ops directors, and sustainability leads over the last two years — the message is always the same:

‍“We need to take control of this.”

‍

That doesn’t mean ditching the grid overnight. It means building a smart mix:

• On-site solar where viable (funded or CapEx)
• Off-site PPAs for larger portfolios
• Traceable green tariffs to plug gaps
• Flexibility from battery storage or demand-side response

‍

It also means working with the right energy partners — brokers who aren’t just flogging tariffs, but structuring proper long-term deals with aligned funders and EPCs.

Most businesses don’t need more suppliers. They need someone who can cut through the noise and bring them a credible, bankable energy roadmap.

Get Ahead — or Get Exposed

The message I give to clients is simple: if you’re still waiting for stability, you’re waiting too long.

This market isn’t going to “go back to normal.” The businesses that win will be the ones who:

• Lock in their costs before prices rebound
• Take control of their emissions
• Position themselves as credible partners in a net-zero economy

‍

You don’t need to build a solar farm. But you do need to act — whether that’s auditing your energy spend, evaluating a PPA, or switching to a 100% traceable tariff.

Let's Talk Strategy

At Curley & Haines Group, we secure funded solar solutions, corporate PPAs, and green tariff contracts for UK businesses.

If you want a clear path forward — one that protects your bottom line and futureproofs your operation — we’d love to chat.

Book a discovery call now
Let’s get your energy strategy working for your business, not against it.

‍